Welcome to the current installment of the semi-irregular What’s Hot! Trying something a little new, this post will follow a theme by discussing a few articles on a related topic. This month, the decline of coal and the rise of renewables.
Burning fossil fuels puts carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, CO2 traps heat and warms the planet. None is dirtier than coal. Fortunately, coal is facing a steep decline, at least in the developed world, and soon the rest of the planet.
Climate Change Comes to the Midwest
Heat waves and extreme rain are two weather events that are very closely linked to climate change. More heat trapped in the atmosphere by CO2 means more heat is available to pull moisture up into the air, and to cause extreme rainfall. You can read more about it in a previous post.
The Spring of 2019 had some epic flooding in the midwest that delayed the planting of corn and other crops, causing extensive monetary damage to farmers. Quartz had an interesting article about that, with some pics and video from farmer Twitter.
If you want a deeper dive into 2019 planting delays in the Midwest, check out this article from the American Farm Bureau Federation. What’s striking about the chart is that they show just how widespread the damage is, covering the entire Midwestern US. And of course, it’s not just corn, but every crop that is affected. This is one of the many effects of climate change happening now.
The Decline of Coal
One of the major sources of green house gas emissions, coal, is in decline. Despite what deniers might say, there is no outright “war on coal”, even though there should be. Coal is by far the dirtiest fossil fuel contributing to global warming.
A much more powerful force is driving the decline of coal — the free market. One of the best summaries about this comes from Stanford University’s Institute for Economic Policy Research. They show that many factors contributed to the decline of coal, including: 1970s environmental regulations to reduce acid rain and deregulation of the railroads that resulted in a boom in the mining of low sulfur, Western coal and a decline in acid rain causing Eastern coal; increasingly efficient coal mining techniques that put people out of work; and the boom of cheaper natural gas. So like most things, there’s not just one reason.
From.. https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/what-killing-us-coal-industry
Trump of course would tell you that President Obama started a war on coal. Trump keeps trying to prop up a dying industry, in effect holding the rest of the economy and the health of the nation hostage in order to save a relatively few number of coal jobs so he can pander to his base, especially people in coal country like West Virginia.
In reality, he is doing them (and the rest of us) no good. Coal miner’s pensions are in jeopardy as the industry goes bankrupt, some coal miner’s refuse retraining with the hope that Trump will bring back their jobs. The writing is on the wall, especially when alternative energy production is surging.
The Rise of Renewable Energy
Renewable energy generation surpassed coal for the first time in April of 2019. It was driven largely by new wind power installations, as well as solar and hydroelectric power. In three years renewable energy is expected to provide more than 25% of US power needs. That’s pretty amazing. I remember arguing with some bonehead a few years ago about this. They claimed renewables would never supply more than a tiny fraction of US power. It’s amazing to see the pace of change.
From… https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39992
Surging Energy Storage Capacity
One example of the fast pace of change is the increase in storage capacity for renewable energy. Energy storage is key for the future of renewable energy so it can provide power when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.
According to Utility Dive… “U.S. energy storage deployment nearly doubled in 2018 as the nation installed 350.5 MW, 777 MWh — over 80% more than was deployed in 2017 in terms of megawatt-hours…” And what’s more storage capacity is set to double in 2019, making 2019 the year alternative energy really takes off!
Utility Dive is a great site for energy industry news and analysis. I’d recommend subscribing to their email updates if you are interested in this topic.
Renewable Energy is Less Expensive
You might logically conclude that the more renewable energy projects that are built, the cheaper renewable energy might get. Well you’d be right. Alternative energy is becoming CHEAPER than coal, and soon, other fossil fuels.
A Forbes.com article from last December provided some excellent insight. Even with subsidies considered, installing new renewable energy capacity is becoming less expensive than maintaining old coal-fired power plants. By 2030 current coal fired plants will be too expensive to operate, and that’s not even considering the health and climate costs.
When you look at the charts below one thing becomes apparent — beautiful, clean renewable energy (to paraphrase Trump) will replace fossil fuel.
From … Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal, Forbes.com
From … Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal, Forbes.com
The Path to a Clean Energy Economy
The path to decarbonize the US economy is following that of the United Kingdom. Carbon Brief recently released an amazing interactive, infographic showing the transition to alternative energy in the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2018. (<– click here for that interactive infographic. Links below go to different articles.)
In only ten years the use of coal has dropped from 34% to 11% of energy generation capacity, while alternative energy now supplies more than 50% of energy needs in the UK. In fact, “the grid in Great Britain recently ran for a record 18 days straight without burning coal – the first time this has happened since 1882!”
This transition happened in fits and starts, and wasn’t entirely pretty, but it did happen. And they are not finished yet. This shows that it can be done. Hopefully, someone can make a similar graphic for the US in ten years.
So in sum, the effects of climate change are plainly visible if you have eyes to see; coal is declining fast due to multiple factors, the least of which is a supposed “war on coal”; as the use of fossil fuels like coal declines, renewable energy becomes cheaper and takes on more of the load; and decarbonizing a modern economy can be done, as demonstrated in the UK. And… it’s all happening way faster than anyone predicted.
Imagine a world without fossil fuels. The air will be so much cleaner in cities and in the countryside, there will be fewer deaths from mining and drilling, fewer environmental disasters like pipeline and oil platform leaks, and we will not be working to make the planet unlivable. Someday people will take clean energy for granted, and wonder how it ever could have been any different.
Maybe there is hope yet.