This blog has gone into detail about the link between climate change and forest fires in a previous post — “Forest Fires, Drought, Climate Change and You.” That article discusses the science behind climate change and forest fires. And most of the content below will probably be added to the larger, more comprehensive article soon. So please keep an eye out for that.
If you want more info about how to adapt to forest fires check out the recently updated post – How To Adapt To And Survive Forest Fires.
Increasing Size and Intensity of Forest Fires
Some recent work has shown that the link between climate change and forest fires has only gotten worse. A recent article titled”U.S. Fires Quadrupled in Size, Tripled in Frequency in 20 Years” in EOS (a newsletter from the American Geophysical Union), noted that a recent study has shown that fires have increased in size and frequency, *independent* of other factors, such as people living closer to forests, fire management practices, and so forth.
What a lot of people do not realize about the impacts of climate change is that it’s not just the daytime temperature change that is harmful, but it’s the fact that nights are warmer as well.
Warmer nighttime temps sustain forest fire burn at night because forests don’t have a chance to cool off and condense moisture on vegetation. It’s also a big factor in injury and death from heat waves because people also cannot cool off at night.
A Changing Fire Regime
A warming climate also causes the forest to dry out. Here’s a graph with three different fire triangles at different scales and times. The first is the basic fire triangle, the second shows the things that influence a fire while it’s happening, and the last are the long-term influences, also known as the “fire regime”, which includes changes to climate.
Climate change works on the fuel and heat part. If you raise the average temperature and cause mild winters, the forest will dry out faster in the spring and summer. Dry fuel enable fires to start easily and burn hotter. A warmer climate also means your fire season lasts longer.
How big a problem is it?
It’s a big problem and getting worse. Many people in the US live in, on the edge or near a forest. Many more live down wind from potential burn areas. In this case “down wind” can mean a thousand miles or more. People in this area with lung and heart problems can be affected by the smoke.
The graph below shows the number of acres burned in the US over the past 30+ years. The trend is clear — more and more acres are burned every year.
The number of fires has not changed much, but the number of acres burned is increasing dramatically, indicating fires are bigger than before. Data from National Interagency Fire Data Center. Figure by The Climate Advisor.
Rising Costs of Fire Suppression
The costs of containing and putting out those fires is also increasing dramatically. Like many changes associated with climate change, the impact is not a straight line, it’s exponential.
Property Damage and Lives Lost
The table below shows the increase in structures (homes and other buildings) destroyed by fire in recent years. It also shows numbers of deaths of firefighters, but not civilian deaths, which are higher.
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personnel | ||||||||
| FS Firefighters | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
| DOI Firefighters | 3,450 | 3,997 | 4,129 | 4,514 | 4,492 | 4,442 | n/a | n/a |
| Losses | ||||||||
| Firefighter Fatalities | 10 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 7 | 15 | 23* |
| Structures | 1,953 | 4,636 | 4,312 | 12,306 | 25,790 | 963 | 17,904 | 5,972 |
* COVID-19 was leading cause of wildland firefighter death in 2021. “FS” = Forest Service and “DOI” = Department of the Interior.n/a = not available or not found, info obviously exists somewhere, and if found, this table will be updated.
If you want to take a deep dive on firefighter and civilian casualties during forest fires, check out this paper, Wildfires and WUI Fire Fatalities, which reviews U.S., Australian and some European data. Lots of interesting information, like the table below. (WUI = Wild-Urban Interface).
From the table, it looks like not leaving your home as a fire approaches is the biggest cause of death (top three rows) for civilians. The choice of time periods is a bit odd, and does not help to separate the impacts of the worsening fire risk in recent decades, but that was probably not their focus.
We hope you enjoyed or learned something from this review of the changing forest fire regime. Climate change is causing the scale of the fires to become immense. This is a trend that will not change anytime soon. It will only get worse. This will affect where and how people live, now and well into the future. If you live in a fire danger area, be sure to do all you can to adapt to and survive forest fires. Luck favors the prepared.