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What’s Hot In Climate Change, Spring 2020

XOM bleeding shareholder value

It’s time for another “What’s Hot in Climate Change” where we look at a some of the important climate-related stories from the past few months.

In this installment we learn that major banks are waking up to the risks from climate change; how even with dirty energy, electric cars are still cleaner than gasoline powered cars; how the Tesla solar roof is continually improving; an excellent summary of the five pillars of climate science denial; and we end with a look at vanishing mountain glaciers that supply water to millions of people.


Big Money Waking Up to Climate Risks

Fossil fuel companies have always been great investments in the past. This no longer seems to be the case as the impacts of climate change are on investors minds.

Many banks and investment funds are starting to come around. One example includes Blackrock, one of the largest investment services in the world, with over seven trillion dollars under management. Blackrock recently announced a push towards sustainable investment. They are divesting from “thermal coal”, will offer a few “green” funds, and will focus on sustainability in the companies they invest in.

When you read Blackrock’s actual announcement, it’s fairly weak, but at least it’s a start. And to turn a boat loaded with $7T dollars around probably takes time, so kudos to them for getting started.

ExxonMobil, a bad investment
ExxonMobil historical stock data.
Despite the most wonderful and stupendous economy ever over the past few years, ExxonMobil appears to be on the downward slide. Note the short, mid and long term outlook for ExxonMobil (red box).

Along with Blackrock, banks are coming around. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), is warning that the risks from climate change are “uninsurable and unhedgeable”. The BIS is a policy organization, with membership consisting of 60 central banks from around the world representing 95% of the world’s economies. They help ensure consistency and transparency in monetary policy around the world.

The recent BIS report talks about “green swans”, which are climate related events with unknown impacts on the monetary systems. According to BIS…“Traditional backward-looking risk assessments and existing climate-economic models cannot anticipate accurately enough the form that climate-related risks will take. These include what we call “green swan” risks: potentially extremely financially disruptive events that could be behind the next systemic financial crisis.”

You can read a nice summary by DeSmog Blog… here and the full BIS report… here.

JP Morgan Chase funds billions of dollars of fossil fuel projects around the world. However, a recent internal report from Chase outlines the risks form climate change. According to The Guardian“The world’s largest financier of fossil fuels has warned clients that the climate crisis threatens the survival of humanity and that the planet is on an unsustainable trajectory, according to a leaked document.”

Last, Exxon and other big oil companies may have escaped responsibility in the courts so far, but just like the tobacco companies, their day of reckoning is coming. When a windbag like CNBC’s Jim Cramer says he’s done with oil, can the end be far behind??


Beautiful “Clean” Coal (-fired Electric Cars)

In a nice little review done by RealClear Science, electric vehicles produce significantly lower lifetime emissions than a gas or diesel powered vehicle, *even* if they are charged with electricity generated from the dirtiest of coal. Wow!

Tesla car charging by a mountain lake
Imagine how clean the air will be when all vehicles are electric. It’s going to be amazing.
(Image by Blomst from Pixabay)

This work focusses on Australia, where different parts of the country get power from different sources, ranging from mostly renewables to mostly dirty coal. They found that when charged from a grid mostly powered by dirty coal, electric vehicles still produce less CO2 emissions (20% less!). When powered by a grid supplied with mostly renewable energy, electric vehicles produce 80% less CO2 emissions. Double wow!!

Table of CO2 emitted by charging an electric vehicle from different types of fuel sources
Smaller and negative numbers are better… Real-world fuel lifecycle emission estimates for battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and petrol vehicles in Australia, calculated using 2019 Greenhouse Account Factors. Dr Jake Whitehead. From RealClear Science, The Truth About Electric Vehicle Emissions, 9/2019.

The article goes on to outline the many other benefits of electric vehicles, such as…

  • thousands of dollars cheaper per year to operate (electricity cheaper than gas, no oil changes, fewer breakdowns, etc.)
  • economic opportunities (this article was written for Australia and this point is about development of lithium mining for batteries, which also applies to the US and elsewhere. Not mentioned were the build out of the infrastructure such as wind and solar farms, transmission lines, charging infrastructure, etc.)
  • fuel security, not relying on unstable countries for fossil fuels
  • use of the electricity in electric car batteries to stabilize the power grid (link)
  • and of course… the health benefits of clean air!
Tesla CyberTruck
I put a deposit down on a Tesla CyberTruck, so I hope to go all electric soon. In my mind the CyberTruck represents a revolution in the auto industry (along with all the other great Tesla vehicles), because of it’s 500+ mile range (tri-motor version) *and* it’s incredible performance characteristics.

Tesla Solar – Coming to a roof near you soon!

Tesla merged with Solar City a while back. Solar City was run by Elon Musk’s cousins, so I guess it’s still all in the family. It was a pretty good move by Tesla because they are building a complete ecosystem for their products (electric cars, solar power, batteries).

One cool thing about Tesla’s solar division is that they are continually improving by developing the tech, driving consumer costs down, and steadily expanding where they serve. Tesla not only makes solar panels that look like roof tiles, but they also make pretty sleek solar panels to put on top of an existing roof.

Tesla Solar Roof
Tesla Solar Roof. Tesla also installs sweet panels too!

I have been thinking about getting Tesla solar panels for my house, but I’m not sure if I’m going to stay here for long. Even if I didn’t stay, it’d probably be a nice selling point. One cool thing about my house is that it has a 220v outlet in the garage for some reason. I don’t think they were thinking about electric cars back when my house was built, but I’ll be able to charge my CyberTruck without too much trouble. 😉

For a nice breakdown on recent Tesla Solar developments, check out this article from Inverse.com. Inverse is one place where I get my Tesla and SpaceX news in easily digested portions, but the site Teslarati.com has the veritable feast of Tesla and SpaceX info. Check it out.


Pillars of Denial (are crumbling)

The fossil fuel industry, specifically ExxonMobil, have spent the past 30+ years funding a misinformation campaign about climate change. This is the one thing that will likely result in them eventually paying out billions (trillions?) in damages, just like big tobacco’s misinformation campaign led them down the same path.

According to an article published on the site The Conversation, the oil industry spends about $200M a year lobbying to stop governments from addressing the impacts of climate change.

Annual oil company spending on lobbying to delay meaningful action on climate change, $201 million spent annually by 5 companies.

The article outlines the tactics used by these corporate liars and their witting and unwitting minions. Here’s a summary. Check out the article to get more details.

  1. Science Denial – which argues against the overwhelming scientific evidence, even though their arguments are debunked time and again.
  2. Economic Denial – it’s too expensive to fix anyway. Of course the cost of doing nothing dwarfs any cost of addressing climate change.
  3. Humanitarian Denial – if it is happening, it’s good for us anyway. This is blind to the increasingly devastating impacts of heat waves and extreme weather, and the displacement of millions of people, which has already begun.
  4. Political Denial – we can’t do anything unless other countries do their part. Well that’s what the Paris Accord was all about, but beyond that, while the US may not currently be the number one producer of CO2, we definitely put more of it up there than anyone else.
  5. Crisis Denial – it’s not that bad, and we should wait until we have definitive evidence. The case for a crisis mounts daily, and by the time we have “definitive evidence” the costs to fix it will have risen exponentially, if it can be fixed at all by then. And besides, the evidence really has been “definitive” for some time now, decades even.

If you want to listen to an amazing podcast about the war waged against humanity by oil interests in the name of profit, listen to the podcast Drilled, which covers this in depth.

Check out other great climate change podcasts here, and podcasts specifically about the transition to alternative energy here.

Let’s close this section with a graph about model predictions. Climate deniers often dismiss climate models as inaccurate and fanciful. Nothing could be further from the truth. Climate models have been amazingly accurate, all things considered, and get better all the time.

climate model predictions versus observations, 1970 to 2017.  Hint... models are accurate.
The gray area represents an amalgam of climate model predictions, and the black line is the average prediction of the models, while the other lines show the actual, measured global temperature change. Get you some gory detail about climate modeling from Carbon Brief.

Climate Change is Local…

If you follow climate change developments regularly, you will often see articles about particular plants, animals, and entire ecosystems being adversely affected by climate change. Some are predicting future trends, but many are happening here and now, like dying coral reefs and melting glaciers.

National Geographic has a lot of great coverage and it’s all free online. They recently published an article on disappearing glaciers around the world. This is not only a problem for the alpine environments that evolved with glaciers, but also for the downstream forests, deserts and other ecosystems that depend on a stable source of water.

Of course, one of the biggest impacts will be on people. Millions, if not billions of people around the world, from the US, to Europe, to Pakistan and India, to China, depend on stable water flows from rivers fed by glaciers and snow melt.

Water towers of the world, showing water supplies affected by melting glaciers
Screen shot of an interactive graphic about “Water Towers of the World“, by National Geographic. The graphic outlines specific regions affected by loss of snowpack and glacier cover and the numbers of people affected.

If you like Pinterest, The Climate Advisor has hundreds of pins on several different boards. There’s a board called “Climate Change is Local” which focusses on articles about climate change relative to specific places. Please check out the other boards too!

The NatGeo article focussed mostly on glaciers, but snowpack is important too. The yearly snowpack that comes and goes is an important source of water for streams and rivers, especially in arid regions like the Rocky Mountain west.

Projected water supply and demand for the Colorado River basin.  Demand is already exceeding supply.

A recent study shows that the Colorado River basin is more sensitive to climate change than previously thought, which will lead to severe water shortages for 40 million people. Seven states including Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California rely on water from the Colorado river basin. Learn about some dire predictions of drought for the US Midwest and Southwest here.


Well that’s all for now. Next up a post about how to prepare and care for your pets during a natural disaster. As always, stay tuned for more, and thanks for reading.

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